Donald Trump is at it again with another threat of tariffs against Mexico if the water stipulated in the 1944 Water Treaty is not delivered. This Monday, the U.S. president posted on his X account that he would impose an additional 5% tariff on Mexican products in response to what he called a failure to deliver water.
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Is there really a failure to comply with the treaty?
Despite the Water Treaty being established over 70 years ago, the agreement remains in force for both countries. Therefore, Trump accused Mexico of non-compliance, stating that only 800,000 acre-feet have been delivered, which is below what the agreement stipulates.
Trump demanded the release of 200,000 acre-feet water before December 31, warning that if not met, tariffs could increase «shortly after.» If this new sanction is implemented, taxes on certain Mexican products could reach a maximum of 35%, although most goods remain exempt under the USMCA.
Mexico acknowledges the shortfall but blames the drought
Mexico’s president, Claudia Sheinbaum, has acknowledged that the country indeed faced difficulties in complying with the treaty. However, she asserted it was not due to a lack of will, but rather the prolonged drought that has affected the northern part of the territory in recent years.
According to data from Conagua (National Water Commission), 2022 and 2023 were among the driest periods recorded in the border region. During these years, the water level stored in dams like La Amistad and Falcón dropped to historic lows.
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Impossible to deliver the water the United States demands
President Sheinbaum reported this Tuesday that Mexico has already delivered part of the remaining volume for this year. Furthermore, she reminded that the agreement allows for flexibility during periods of scarcity and that the pending delivery—approximately 1 billion cubic meters—can be completed in the next five-year cycle.
Sheinbaum stated that water releases will continue as long as they do not endanger farmers and livestock producers in the north of the country. La Amistad and Falcón dams are currently at only 9% and 4% of their capacity, jeopardizing the water supply for 13 cities.
Meeting to resolve the conflict
A virtual meeting between the Mexican delegation, headed by agricultural authorities and diplomatic representatives, and their U.S. counterparts is scheduled for Tuesday afternoon.
During the meeting, they will address the current water conflict. Representatives from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (SRE), the International Boundary and Water Commission (CILA), the National Water Commission (Conagua), and the Secretary of Agriculture will participate.
In the meeting, they will present updated technical data and propose a delivery schedule that addresses both the treaty obligations and the limitations caused by the drought.
