Canada’s Armed Forces have developed a theoretical model to assess how they would respond to a possible military invasion by the United States, in an exercise that does not constitute an operational plan but rather a conceptual framework for strategic reflection, the newspaper The Globe and Mail reported. According to senior government officials cited by several international media outlets, this marks the first time in more than a century that the Canadian military has formally considered such a scenario.
According to those officials, the exercise is based on the assumption that U.S. forces could rapidly overrun key Canadian strategic positions on land and at sea, possibly within a week or even in as little as two days. However, the senior officials agreed that they consider it unlikely that the U.S. administration would order such an invasion, and they emphasized that military relations between Ottawa and Washington have generally been positive, including cooperation on joint defense initiatives.
The report underscores that Canada lacks the personnel and equipment necessary to repel a conventional attack by the United States, a far superior military power. Given this disparity, military planners focused on exploring forms of non-conventional warfare, which would include ambushes, sabotage, drone attacks, and hit-and-run tactics carried out by small groups of irregular fighters or even armed civilians. These tactics would resemble those used by insurgent forces in conflicts such as Afghanistan, where local groups resisted invading forces over extended periods.
The document also analyzes early warning signs that could indicate an imminent act of aggression, such as a breakdown in bilateral cooperation within the North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) or the termination of key agreements like shared airspace policies. According to one of the officials cited, Canada would have a maximum of three months to prepare for a land and maritime invasion.
