Mexico has consolidated its position as the leading supplier of goods to the United States, overtaking China in a trade environment shaped by the tariff policies promoted by President Donald Trump. Contrary to the “devastating” impact anticipated by analysts and officials at the beginning of 2025, the Mexican economy has managed to adapt to the new rules of international trade and strengthen its role as a strategic partner to the world’s largest economy.
According to an analysis by The Wall Street Journal (WSJ), Mexican exports to the United States increased by nearly 9% between January and November 2025 compared with the same period a year earlier. This growth occurred despite the imposition of tariffs on sensitive sectors such as automotive manufacturing, steel, and aluminum.
While vehicle exports declined by approximately 6%, other manufactured goods posted solid performance, recording growth of up to 17%. This expansion more than offset sector-specific losses and pushed bilateral trade toward a historic high, approaching 900 billion dollars by the end of the year. Analysts note that Mexico’s diversified manufacturing base and its deep integration into North American supply chains have been key to sustaining momentum.
Tariffs: Mexico’s Advantage Over China
A central factor behind Mexico’s advance lies in the stark difference in effective tariff rates. Data cited by the WSJ and the Penn Wharton Budget Model show that Mexican goods face an average effective tariff rate of 4.7% when entering the U.S. market. In contrast, Chinese products are subject to an average rate of 37.1%.
