The U.S. economy performed much more strongly than expected, posting annualized gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 4.3% in the third quarter of 2025, according to official data released this Tuesday, December 23, by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
The result not only far exceeded analysts’ projections but also marked the largest economic growth since the third quarter of 2023, reinforcing signs of strength in the world’s largest economy amid a global environment marked by trade tensions and slowdowns in other regions.
U.S. GDP exceeds market forecasts
According to consensus estimates from MarketWatch and Trading Economics, analysts anticipated a moderation in economic activity, with annualized growth of around 3.2%, below the 3.8% recorded in the second quarter.
However, the final advance was much larger: 1.1% higher than the previous quarter, which positively surprised markets and economists.
It should be noted that these data are a preliminary estimate, published almost two months late due to the partial U.S. government shutdown, which temporarily suspended the work of statistical agencies between October 1 and November 12 due to a lack of funding.
Consumption, exports, and government spending drive growth
The Department of Commerce detailed that U.S. GDP growth was primarily driven by:
- An increase in domestic consumption, which grew by 3.5% at an annualized rate, reflecting the strength of household spending.
- Exports rebounded, rising 8.8% between July and September.
- Increased public spending, which contributed positively to economic activity.
These factors partially offset the decline in private investment, one of the few components that showed weakness during the period.
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Exports on the rise and imports on the decline: the impact of tariffs
The BEA data also revealed that, during the third quarter of 2025:
- Imports contracted by 4.7%.
While exports grew strongly, suggesting a direct impact from the trade tariffs imposed by the Donald Trump administration.
In April, the U.S. president announced the so-called “reciprocal tariffs” as a central part of his trade war strategy, which would have contributed to altering trade flows and strengthening the external balance.
Trump celebrates economic growth and attributes the result to tariffs
Minutes after the report was published, President Donald Trump celebrated the economic results on his social network, Truth Social, where he asserted that tariffs are the key to the U.S. economy’s strong performance.
Tariffs are responsible for the excellent U.S. economic figures that have just been announced… And these will only get better! “Furthermore, there is no inflation and national security is excellent,” the president wrote.
Trump also referred to the Supreme Court’s deliberations, which are currently examining the legality of several tariffs imposed by his administration, and reiterated his confidence that his economic strategy will usher in a new era of growth.
