The gradual improvement in housing market conditions and mortgage financing is shaping a more favorable outlook for the U.S. real estate sector in 2026. After several years of slowdown following the pandemic, national home sales are projected to increase by approximately 14% next year, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR).
The organization attributes this expected growth to a combination of easing mortgage rates and stronger wage gains that have outpaced the rise in home prices. Together, these factors have improved household purchasing power and encouraged potential buyers to re-enter the market after delaying decisions amid economic uncertainty.
Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at NAR, said current trends point to a gradual normalization of market activity. “We are seeing slightly better conditions for increased home sales, with more inventory coming onto the market and the lock-in effect slowly fading,” Yun stated. He added that many homeowners are becoming more willing to sell as financing conditions stabilize, contributing to healthier transaction volumes.
Signs of recovery were already evident toward the end of 2025. In November, pending home sales posted a 2.6% year-over-year increase, according to NAR’s latest report. After seasonal adjustments, this marked the strongest performance of the year and the highest level recorded since February 2023. The data suggest that improved availability of homes has helped restore buyer confidence, particularly among households that had previously remained on the sidelines.
Looking ahead, price growth is expected to remain moderate. NAR forecasts that home prices will rise between 2% and 3% in 2026, a pace largely in line with overall consumer inflation. This trend would help maintain affordability while supporting steady market expansion.
