There are weeks when the United States reminds the world, and its own citizens, what it is made of. Last week was one of those. According to the University of Michigan and Trading Economics, the consumer confidence index fell to 49.8 points in April, its lowest level in the past year, with fuel prices rising due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and inflationary pressures not fully easing. This Saturday, a gunman interrupted the annual White House Correspondents’ Association dinner in Washington. The Secret Service evacuated President Donald Trump and several of his companions, including the First Lady. Everyone emerged unharmed. The FBI apprehended the suspect. These are two events that, for those who favor the narrative of American decline, fit perfectly into their argument. To me, they tell a different story.
Those who have been predicting the economic collapse of the United States for months have a problem with the data. Real GDP projections for 2026 range between 2.0% and 2.5%, with a labor market that remains strong and a wave of investment in artificial intelligence reshaping entire sectors of the economy. Political noise can be deafening, headlines can be alarmist, and confidence indexes can fall when gasoline prices rise, but the fundamentals of the U.S. economy have a solidity that does not move at the pace of surveys.
One thing is the perception captured by surveys, and quite another is what GDP measures. Confusing the two is the favorite mistake of those who have never run a real business.
Now, I want to focus on what happened at the Hilton in Washington, because it seems to me that the public reaction underestimated the seriousness of the event. This is no small matter in a country that has seen such attempts before, and that remembers what happened in Butler, Pennsylvania, and in Palm Beach, Florida. The Republic was attacked again—and once again, it held.
Those looking to assign blame for the confidence index are right to point out that the conflict with Iran is driving up fuel prices, and that this hits middle- and low-income households with disproportionate severity. That is a real problem that deserves attention. But attributing the entire economic cycle to a single figure, in this case, Donald Trump, without examining investment data, without looking at labor market figures, and without considering the multiplier effect of artificial intelligence on American productivity, is an oversimplification that does not withstand the scrutiny of anyone making decisions with their own money on the line.
The United States has problems that no one with common sense denies, and it has had them long before any recent administration. The difference lies in who confronts them and how. President Trump’s team acted that night with proven efficiency: they evacuated him, Melania, Vance, and other key figures from the venue within seconds, the FBI closed the case that same night, and the country woke up the next day with its government intact. That is the result of an administration that has its priorities in order.
Trump has been blamed for months for everything that unsettles markets and editorial writers. I prefer to look at what he produces: a solid labor market, investment in artificial intelligence that is reshaping the American economy, and security institutions that function when they are needed most. That is governance. As a businessman, I care about results, and this government delivers them.
